Saturday, August 31, 2013

DRAFT REVIEW-SANDUSKYHELDMYVICK

The Who-Iowa resident, Northern Iowa graduate, the best shortstop in Eastern Iowa from 1997-2004.

Best value pick-Anquan Boldin ($1). Injuries have hit the 49ers wide receivers hard and Boldin figures to benefit the most. Sandusky will like this pick more than a pool party at the Hard Rock.

Worst value pick-Victor Cruz ($30)-A Mexican hasn’t sold for this much since Chi-Chi’s restaurant left Blackhawk Village in Cedar Falls. Injury prone and undersized, Cruz looks like a flash in the pan from where I’m sitting.

Sleeper pick-Shane Vereen ($1)-This would have been Matt Ryan ($5) to take another step up but it doesn’t look like he’ll see much action sitting on Sandusky’s bench behind Brady. The Patriots ran the ball more in the red zone than anyone in the NFL. Vereen figures to get many of these carries and is just a Ridley injury away from being a major fantasy factor.

Draft Grade: The stable of running backs is impressive with Doug Martin and Jamaal Charles however we see major questions at wide receiver in this PPR league. There will be no worries at quarterback but tight end is always a concern when relying on Jermichel Finley. B-

SATURDAY'S WINNERS-8/31

A 1-1 Friday puts us at 5-2 on the early season. Plenty of opportunities on the board today and we intend to take full advantage. Iowa opens up at home against 2012 BCS team Northern Illinois. We project an Iowa 10-14 victory making the current number of 3 a great buy. Our National Champion dark horse Clemson will learn their fate early as Georgia comes calling. Mr. Thursday Night sees an outright Tiger victory this evening. Purdue and Toledo face tough road tests but will hang around just long enough to cover their double digit numbers. Check back later for some additions to today's card. Good luck!

IOWA -3 VS NORTHERN ILLINOIS
CLEMSON +2.5 VS GEORGIA
PURDUE +10.5 AT CINCINNATI
TOLEDO +22 AT FLORIDA
TEMPLE +28 AT NOTRE DAME
RICE +30 AT TEXAS A&M
VIRGINIA TECH +22.5 VS ALABAMA
CLEMSON ML (+135) VS GEORGIA
WASHINGTON -4 VS BOISE STATE
TCU +6 VS LSU
NORTHWESTERN -6.5 AT CAL

TWO TEAM PARLAY-IOWA (ML) AND PENN STATE (ML)

Friday, August 30, 2013

FRIDAY FREE FOR ALL

A huge start to the season for Mr. Thursday Night as a 3-1 opening evening (including a 2.5 unit parlay) has things looking up early on. It took a little bit of help from South Carolina and their late game goal line stand and Hawaii's last second 60 yard touchdown pass but we had the right side in both games so there is no need to feel guilty. A light schedule tonight however we have identified a couple of spots with excellent value. Be sure to check back in tomorrow when opening weekend really gets cranked up with a full slate of games.

WESTERN MICHIGAN +27.5 AT MICHIGAN STATE
SMU +5 VS TEXAS TECH

#1-OHIO STATE BUCKEYES

Urban Meyer and the Buckeyes are bowl eligible once again just in time to make a run at not only the Big Ten Title, but also a National Championship. While most publications have Ohio State as a top 5 team, the critics point to several narrow escapes in 2012 as the reason for the Buckeyes being a bit of a fraud.

The offense will start and stop with Braxton Miller. Miller may very well be the odds on favorite to bring the Heisman Trophy back to Columbus this fall. If Ohio State goes undefeated this year, you can consider Miller a lock for the award. Miller's offense line looks extremely strong with 4 seniors making up the starting five. Devin Smith and Corey Brown lead a group of receivers that will need to take another step forward in 2013. Carlos Hyde will miss a couple of games due to suspension but will be back for conference play. Hyde is the clear cut #1 in the backfield and one of the better backs in the country.

Defensively, linebacker Ryan Shazier (115 tackles, 5.0 sacks)is the unquestioned leader and a candidate for multiple post season awards. The defensive line appears to be the soft spot as Chris Carter, Joey Bosa, Michael Hill and Chase Farri all will need to improve their output from the prior season. As usual, the Buckeye secondary is loaded lead by the latest All-American corner from OSU, Bradley Roby.

A trip to Cal figures to be the only moderate test during a weak non-conference slate. Minnesota, Michigan State and Nebraska were lucky enough to miss Ohio State on the schedule this year. The toughest test will as usual be the last weekend of the season, in Ann Arbor against Michigan.

PREDICTION: 4-0 non-conference, 8-0 conference, 12-0 overall.

Thursday, August 29, 2013

#2-NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS

Pat Fitzgerald has the Wildcat fan base in a frenzy as Northwestern will field their most talented roster since the Darnell Autry days. The Wildcats won their first bowl game in school history last year and will set their sights even higher in 2013.

The offense should be dynamic once again with Kane Colter back behind center and running back Venric Mark poised for a monster senior season. Mike Trumpy also returns to give Mark the occasional breather. Christian Jones, Tony Jones and Rashad Lawrence will be Colter’s primary weapons out wide while Dan Vitale will chip in at both WR and RB. The offensive line for Northwestern is young and lack experienced so their growth will likely dictate how far the Wildcats go on offense.

Northwestern returns seven starters on defense which was noticeably better last fall. Tyler Scott ancors the defensive line and will get help from sophomore Dean Lowry and freshman Ifeadi Odenigbo. Returning 112 tackler Damien Proby will be the focal point of the linebacker group and Ibraheim Campbell returns in the secondary.

Northwestern travels to Cal to open the season in what should be a good early season test. In week two, Syracuse visits Evanston. In conference play, the Wildcats miss Indiana, Penn State and Purdue. An October 5th trip to the Horseshoe will be a key game in the conference race.

PREDICTION: 4-0 non-conference, 7-1 conference, 11-1 overall.

Wednesday, August 28, 2013

MR. THURSDAY NIGHT!

Football is back tomorrow fellow degenerates and we've got a nice looking card to kickoff the season! Several interesting opportunities have presented themselves already and we look forward to pouncing on them like a true degen would. Our annual Hall of Fame Game start of season wager has got us off at 1-0 and the picks below figure to get us up 4 units before the weekend even hits. Clowney and the boys will take the Heels behind the woodshed while Minnesota begins its' usual non-conference cupcake schedule with a blowout of UNLV. Stay tuned for a possible late add in the Rutgers/Fresno game. Good luck!

SOUTH CAROLINA -13.5 VS NORTH CAROLINA
MINNESOTA -13.5 VS UNLV

2 TEAM PARLAY:
UTAH STATE +115 TO WIN VS UTAH
OLE MISS -170 TO WIN AT VANDERBILT

ADD 2 TEAM PARLAY-RUTGERS +10.5 AT FRESNO STATE/HAWAII +24 VS USC

#3-NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS

Bo Pelini returns a strong and experienced group in 2013 as the Nebraska Cornhuskers attempt to win their first conference title in over a decade. The big question this fall remains on the defensive side of the ball after an embarrassing effort last season, in particular in the Big Ten title game and Capital One Bowl.

Taylor Martinez is back for what seems like his 8th season and figures to improve even further with his passing skills. The development was evident in 2012 as Martinez finished with 2700 yards and 23 touchdowns through the air. Ameer Abdullah will be the starter at running back with talented youngsters, Imani Cross and Terrell Newby figuring to find carries of their own. At wide receiver, Kenny Bell may be the best in the Big Ten while Jamal Turner and Quincy Enunway will battle for the #2 spot.

Between the defensive line and linebacking units, Nebraska returns just two starters however this may be a good thing after a dismal 2012. JUCO lineman Randy Gregory was brought in to make a difference up front and senior Jason Ankrah will try and build on a promising showing last year. All 3 starting linebackers are gone however the secondary will be perhaps among the best in the country. Ciante Evans is a lock to be on the All-Big Team and perhaps even more.

An improved UCLA squad is the main event of the non-conference for the Huskers. During conference play, Nebraska does not play Indiana, Purdue or Ohio State. Early conference matchups against Illinois, Purdue and Minnesota should allow Nebraska to get off to a 3-0 Big Ten start.

PREDICTION: 4-0 non-conference, 6-2 conference, 10-2 overall.

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

#4-MICHIGAN WOLVERINES

Third year bench boss Brady Hoke hopes to continue to build the maze & blue program back to previous heights in 2013. Denard Robinson is gone but capable Devin Gardner returns to Ann Arbor to lead what looks to be a young but very talented Wolverine squad.

Gardner took over last year after the Robinson injury and looked electric at times. He’ll be joined in the backfield by Fitzgerald Toussaint (who is hoping to return from injury) and Derrick Green. The group of wide receivers appears to be the weak spot on the Michigan offense. Jeremy Gallon and Drew Dileo will attempt to fill the shoes of the departed Roy Roundtree. Up front, All-American tackle Taylor Lewan will lead an offensive line that only returns two starters.

The past few years the defense has been the reason that Michigan has not been able to take that final step back into national relevancy. Frank Clark looks to be a difference maker on the defensive line and sophomore Ondre Pipkins should challenge for even more playing time this fall. The Wolverine linebackers have been hit with injuries this spring and summer but Desmond Morgan moving to the inside slot should make this a solid trio. The secondary was hit hard by graduation and there could be some early growing pains in the back end.

The annual match-up vs Notre Dame is the only highlight of the non-conference schedule. Once Big Ten play kicks off, Michigan will avoid Illinois, Wisconsin and Purdue. Nebraska and Ohio State both have to visit the Big House in 2013.

PREDICTION: 4-0 non-conference, 6-2 conference, 10-2 overall.

Friday, August 23, 2013

#5-INDIANA HOOSIERS

The surprise team in the Big Ten this year will be the Indiana Hoosiers, yes the Indiana Hoosiers. Kevin Wilson returns 3 capable quarterbacks and several solid offensive weapons. Not since the days of Vaughn Dunbar have the Hoosiers been relevant but we are projecting a revival this fall in Bloomington.

Tre Roberson is back from injury and will likely regain his starting quarterback position come the 2013 opener. Stephen Houston will be the primary ball carrier and the always reliable Shane Wynn will be Roberson’s favorite target again this fall. Despite running 3 quarterbacks out there last season, Indiana finished with a top 20 passing attack in the country.
The defense of Indiana will determine if this is truly to be a special season or another long fall in Bloomington.

Another season of finishing in the 100s for total defense will not allow the Hoosiers to take that important next step for the program. Senior Greg Heban and junior Mark Murphy form an exception safety tandem while linebacker David Cooper remains the clear cut leader of this unit.

Indiana plays all 4 non-conference games at home and figures to only be challenged by Missouri in late September. Once the Big Ten slate fires up, the Hoosiers will have their fifth straight home game when Penn State comes calling. Indiana avoids Iowa, Northwestern and Nebraska.

PREDICTION: 4-0 non-conference, 5-3 conference, 9-3 overall.

Thursday, August 22, 2013

#6-WISCONSIN BADGERS

Gary Andersen steps in for the departed Bret Bielema as the Wisconsin Badgers look to continue was is their golden age of fooball. Amazingly, Wisconsin has reached three straight BCS Bowl games with three different starting quarterbacks.

Montee Ball is gone but plenty of capable running backs remain to run behind another strong Badger offensive line. Ball’s career backup, James White returns with 2700 career rushing yards to his name. White will likely start with Melvin Gordon waiting in the wings should White need a breather. At receiver, James Abberderis is back and Jacob Pedersen headlines the tight end grouping. As of press time, the QB job is still up in there air with Curt Phillips, Tanner McEvoy and Joel Stave battling for the starting gig.

The Wisconsin defense will undergo a major facelift as Gary Andersen brings in his 3-4 setup. The defensive line is unsettled with several underperformers returning and a couple of position changes. Chris Borland is back to stabilize the linebacker unit and is poised for an All-American 2013. The secondary has major holes to fill with 3 starters gone from last fall.

The Badgers schedule features two tune-ups before a trip to the desert to face Arizona State. BYU visits Camp Randall in early November. During conference play, Wisconsin avoids Michigan, Michigan State and Nebraska. A late September trip to Columbus should give us a good idea on what this Badger squad will look like.

PREDICTION: 3-1 non-conference, 5-3 conference, 8-4 overall.

Wednesday, August 21, 2013

#7-IOWA HAWKEYES

The seat is getting warm for Kirk Ferentz in Iowa City as he tries to reverse a 3 year trend of winning fewer games than the year before. A quiet offseason and the emergence of some young talent has Hawkeye fans hoping Ferentz can turn around his fortunes once again.

Jake Rudock appears to have won the quarterback competition however he is yet to take a snap in a college game. Despite the inexperience, Rudock figures to be an upgrade over the dismal performance given by James Vandenberg in 2012. For the first time in years, the running back situation appears calm and deep, with Mark Weisman listed as the starter and several others pushing for time as well. The wide receiver group is very much unproven but should be aided by an excellent crop of tight ends highlighted by CJ Fiedorowicz. The strength on the offensive side of the ball for Iowa will be the offensive line, nothing new in Hawkeye land.

In 2012, the Iowa defense was as bad as it has been in a decade. The main reason for this was a defensive line that was subpar by Big Ten standards. This fall, a young and athletic group of lineman move in hoping to regain control of the line of scrimmage. The linebacker group of Hitchens, Morris and Kirksey is solid and reliable as all 3 seniors have years of game experience. In the secondary, the Hawkeyes are waiting for the light bulb to come on for Nico Law. Law oozes talent but thus far has had a difficult time understanding the college game.

An early test vs. Northern Illinois should give us a good idea where the Hawkeyes stand this fall. Weeks later, a trip to Ames will test Iowa as they square off against Iowa State. Iowa misses Illinois, Indiana and Penn State this season which is a tough break as 2 of these teams fall in the bottom 4 of our rankings. The Hawkeyes will be in most games this fall, outside of the dreaded trip to the Horseshoe in mid-October.

PREDICTION: 4-0 non-conference, 3-5 conference, 7-5 overall.

#8-MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS

Michigan State enters the 2013 season looking to rebound from a disappointing 2012 campaign. Expectations were high but offensive struggles prevented the Spartans from living up to their lofty preseason ranking.

Head coach Mark Dantonio once again looks to quarterback Andrew Maxwell to improve a unit that was downright dreadful last fall. If Maxwell struggles again, so will the Spartans. The offensive line appears experienced however it is not a top 5 line in the conference. Le’Veon Bell is off to the NFL, leaving junior Nick Hill as the starter entering September. A young wide receiver group is sparked by Alex Burbridge and DeAnthony Arnett. Dion Sims is gone at tight end, leaving a trio of pass catchers left to fill the void.

Michigan State once again finished in the top 5 in the country in total defense last fall. Stars William Gholston, Chris Norman and Johnny Adams are gone however the majority of the unit remain intact and figures once again to be among the best. Arjen Colquhoun is a new arrival to the starting lineup and is poised to be one of the better safeties in recent MSU memory.

Notre Dame looks to be the only test in an otherwise soft non-conference schedule. Michigan State does not play Ohio State, Penn State or Wisconsin this fall however we are betting on the offense struggling again and Dantonio blowing at least a game or two on his own resulting in another disappointing finish in East Lansing.

PREDICTION: 3-1 non-conference, 3-5 conference, 6-6 overall.

Tuesday, August 20, 2013

#9-PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS

Bill O’Brien was a miracle worker in 2012, leading a depleted roster to 8 wins following a stormy 12 months. The lack of depth figures to have a larger impact this season as the Nittany Lions begin to fade away from relevancy in the Big 10.

Elite freshman recruit Christian Hackenberg takes over at quarterback and does have plenty of weapons at his disposal. Jesse James and Matt Lehman lead an excellent tight end grouping and WR Allen Robinson returns for his junior season.

The defense is going to have to create turnovers if Penn State is to replicate their special season last year. Senior linebacker Glenn Carson is the heart of a unit that can not afford any injuries. Defensive coordinator John Butler will need to blitz more this fall to create some pressure on the quarterback which was lacking all of last year.

The Nittany Lions have an extremely weak non-conference schedule, playing 4 winnable games, 3 of which are at home and the other (Syracuse) being at a neutral site. The Big Ten schedule will provide plenty of tests however, opening up at Indiana, vs Michigan and at Ohio State. Penn State does not play Iowa, Michigan State or Northwestern this season.

PREDICTION: 4-0 non-conference, 3-5 conference, 7-5 overall.

#10 PURDUE BOILERMAKERS

The winds of change are blowing in West Lafayette as Danny Hope could not survive a 6 win 2012 campaign and has been replaced by Kent State’s Darrell Hazell. It has been years since Purdue was a significant factor in the Big Ten race and it appears they are still years away from returning to the past glory days.

Senior Rob Henry is likely your opening day starter. Henry’s passing ability has always been question mark but there is no doubt he can move the chains with his feet. Henry doesn’t figure to get much help from a weak stable of running backs led by Akeen Hunt. Gary Bush returns after catching 7 touchdowns in 2012 while the offensive line hopes to fill 3 spots left vacant by graduation.

The Boilermakers also debut a new defensive coordinator this fall in Greg Hudson. 8 starters return however it can be debated if that is a good or a bad thing as Purdue finished second to last in total defense in the Big Ten last fall. Ricardo Allen is the clear cut leader of the group and is just one interception return for a touchdown away from tying the national record of 5.

On paper, the schedule looks challenging for Purdue. 3 tough non-conference games (Cincy, Notre Dame, Northern Illinois) highlight September. The Boilermakers will miss Minnesota, Michigan and Northwestern during conference play. Visits by Nebraska and Ohio State to Ross Ade Stadium should entertain the home crowd.

PREDICTION: 1-3 non-conference, 1-7 conference, 2-10 overall.

Monday, August 19, 2013

#11-MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS

Minnesota hasn’t won a conference title since 1967 and it does not appear that Jerry Kill will be the man to break the trend. Entering year three, Kill is just 9-16 at Minnesota and has to replace QB MarQuies Gray this fall. On the bright side, 18 starters return for Minnesota including the man who will take over for Gray.

Phillip Nelson will be the man behind center in 2013. Nelson didn’t figure to see the field last year until injuries hit and he actually ended up battling for the starting job. The strength of the offensive unit appears to be the offensive line which is chalked with plenty of starting experience. Overall the Gophers return 10 of 11 offensive starters however the issue is, these starters were not overly productive last season.

On the defensive side of the ball, Minnesota is also undersized but did finish last season 33rd in the country in total defense. Defensive Coordinator Tracy Claeys also has plenty of experience to work with including leading tackler Aaron Hill.

On paper, this appears to be one of the more talented Gophers squads in recent history. However we question both the history of this program and the coaching ability of Jerry Kill. The September schedule is weak as usual with UNLV, New Mexico State, San Jose State and Western Illinois lining up the cupcakes. The conference slate will open vs Iowa. Minnesota avoids Ohio State, Purdue and Illinois in 2013.

PREDICTION: 4-0 non-conference, 1-7 conference, 5-7 overall.

#12-ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI

The season is just 10 days away therefore it is time for our annual rundown of the Big Ten Power Rankings. The conference figures to be stronger this year and with Ohio State off of probation, the Big 10 may have their first legit National Championship contender in several years. We’ll kick things off today with #12!

Tim Beckham returns for year two after winning one game over a FBS in his debut campaign. The Illini lost one game by less than 14 points including an embarrassment vs Louisiana Tech. It didn’t take long fo Beckham to learn things are a little tougher in the Big Ten than in the MAC while at Toledo.

On offense, Nathan Steelhaase returns and will likely be the signal caller come the opener in late August. Steelhaase had an excellent freshman year but since then has had difficulty determining if he was a running quarterback or pocket passer. Ryan Lankford leads a veteran although underwhelming receiving core. Donovan Young and Josh Ferguson will be the duo in the backfield trying to relieve Steelhaase of some of the offensive burden.

The Illini defense appears to be undersized and inexperienced across the board. Linebacker Johnathan Brown figures to be the leader of the defense despite missing much of 2012 due to injury. The secondary could be an outright disaster with very little experience or talent to be found.

The schedule finds some moderate non-conferences challenges with matchups against Washington, Miami OH and Cincinnati scheduled. Illinois misses Iowa, Michigan and Minnesota during conference play and starts with a tough trio of Nebraska, Wisconsin and Michigan State.

PREDICTION: 1-3 non-conference, 0-8 conference, 1-11 overall.

Monday, August 5, 2013

MR. THURSDAY NIGHT RETURNS

Hello again fellow degenerates! Football season is upon us once again and Mr. Thursday Night kicked off the season with a winner as Dallas +3 came home last night in the Hall of Fame game. Coming soon will be our annual Big Ten rundown along with all the locks you've come to expect from MTN. Also be on the lookout this fall for guest picks from other gamers on the staff. We've already secured our future wager of the year while in Las Vegas last month as Clemson 27 to 1 to win the National Title was just too good to pass up. We will know where we stand on that wager early in the year as Clemson and Georgia square off in a week 1 showdown. Good luck this fall and stay tuned!