COACH K-4/11

We struggled again in MLB yesterday but I'm not discouraged one bit. There were some things that I saw where the results definitely supported our numbers/match ups but a few timely hits by the wrong team and a few AB's where we couldn't get the timely hit cost us. We did sweep the NBA though and finished the day up 3.68 units so overall a good day!!

For this afternoon there were 2 plays that I saw some value in but both the sharps and public have hit them pretty hard. Cliff Lee is an average pitcher at best and it seems like the wiseguys know this as well as most of the gambling public. Now, your everyday Joe is going to tell you he is a stud b/c of last year but trust me, I will rarely if ever bet on Lee this year and will pick my spots to fade him. The 2 plays I found were the Jays and the Reds/Pirates under. The Jays opened anywhere from plus $ to -104 and got pushed out to -130, while the under in our other game opened at 9.5 and landed at 8.5. The increase in the Jays ended up being roughly 23% higher which extracted most of our value. In the other game, I would have still played it at 9 but once we go under the #9, the %'s drop significantly. In fact, our %'s say that 10.6% of all MLB games will land on 9 and 54.9% land on 9 or go over. By taking under 8.5 instead of 9 we just cost ourselves almost an 11% chance of not losing our wager. While this game still might go under the 8.5, we are going to lose many more games over the season by taking under 8.5 than we are going over 8.5.

I'll be back with our MLB plays in just a bit as well as any NBA that I can find.

*UPDATE*

Here is what I have confirmed for now. I'll update in the comments thread as I find out more and if we'll upgrade our leans. Good Luck!

MLB
1* Mariners -110
0.5* Nationals +141, Astros +110, Twins -115, Cubs RL (+120), Rockies/Phillies over 10.5, Twins/WSox under 8.5 (-105)
Leans- Angels, Marlins, Rangers, Yankees RL (-114), Braves/Nats over 9 (-110)

NBA
2* Blazers -6.5 (possible upgrade), Suns/Wolves under 224.5