Since posting here at HC&P I am 13-6-1 (68%) on my 3* plays and above! Ratings are based on 1*-5*. This morning I bring you my 2nd 5* play and look to cash in on a big one again.
5* Duke -11
I wanted to get this out first thing this morning before it climbs higher and probably should have released this last night when it opened at -10.5. I have Duke winning this game by 17-19pts without the situational match-up factors that are vastly in Dukes favor. Dukies in a BLOWOUT!
I agree but a lil weary, Duke is now -13.5, were would you rate this??
ReplyDeleteI think Coach K is on this one all the way up to -14.
ReplyDeleteI'm seeing the line on the Duke game at 14 now a few different places. The books are just begging to get some action on the Johnnies by moving it there. This is now a 3.5pt move leaving those who hit the 10.5 a huge middle opportunity. Clearly the books aren't worried about that or they would have kept it at 13.5. Which leads me to believe Duke is still a decent play at -14.
ReplyDeleteTo explain the middle opportunity and keeping the line at 13.5 vs 14; if I have Duke at 10.5, I win on 11 and above. But if I come back and take SJ +14 for a hedge, the line can land on 11, 12, or 13 and I win BOTH bets, but even better is it can land on 14 and I push my SJ hedge. That's 4 points in there where I cannot lose as opposed to if it were to stay at 13.5. I just gained a 25% better chance of not losing money within that scenario.
And on top of that you are getting the best of the number from each side, meaning if I hit Duke at 10.5 I am now essentially getting 3.5pts from the closing number. If I bet SJ's, I am getting 3.5pts from the opening number.
All of that to say this; I feel that the sharps are not going for that big of a middle opportunity and are basically letting their big bets ride on Duke, hence the line moving to 14 instead of sticking at 13.5 and giving 1 more # to profit from. Now, I'm pretty sure that they are hedging a little bit and that is exactly what I am going to do to try and hit the generous middle opportunity we have. While I only push on 11, I still have 4 #'s that I cannot lose and that is a chance I'm willing to take even if it cuts into my profit on the Duke side. I am going to hedge 1.5*s on SJ's and will still win 3.35 units if this plays out like I originally capped the game. But if it falls on 12 or 13...we take home 6.5*s!
As far as value still lying with Duke -14??? I still believe it is there, but would definitely downgrade to a 2* level. I still believe it is worth a play, but by losing 3 pts in value in basketball is HUGE. Now a late layup or meaningless 3 could cost us a win if they are up 15, 16 or 17 points.
ReplyDeleteHere are the 1st Half System Plays. This is not my system but I do endorse the plays since they have been very profitable this year. Again, I would play these at the 1* level.
ReplyDeleteXavier at Charlotte under 64
Duke(9) at St. John's under 63.5
Charleston at Georgia Southern under 74
Stanford at Oregon St. over 59
Washington St. at Southern California under 51.5
Weber State at Montana over 61.5
ST Bonaventure at George Washington over 65
I wanted to get these posted since there seems to be some technical difficulties on Grand Master Flash's side.
ReplyDeleteNCABB
5* Duke -11
3* Oregon +12.5/Stanford +2 (5.5pt teaser)
2* Gonzaga -35, New Orleans +2, Idaho St +3.5, Minnesota +3.5, FIU +3.5, Washington +9
1.5* St. John's +14.5 (bodog) please see my reasoning in the comments thread
1* La Lafayette +6, Charlotte/Xavier under 137, Troy/FIU over 143, Gonzaga/LMU over 134.5
NBA
3* Detroit pk
2* Spurs/Pistons under, Celtics/Jazz over 200
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ReplyDeleteWhen did the Sluggers lose to Rhinos? It wasn't on my watch!
ReplyDeleteI believe that was the game Rhino said he was going to break PSP's legs at Birdsall during a Sturgis Tourney. Epic moment!
ReplyDeleteSystem plays finish 5-2 +2.8 units; overall 11-6 (64.7%) +4.4 units
ReplyDeleteNCAA plays finish 10-5-1 -1 unit
NBA plays finish 1-2 -3.5 units
3* and above record falls to 13-9-1 (59%) +10.15 units
A sad sad sad night finishing 16-9-1 (64%) but dropping 1.7 units because of an awful last 10 minutes from Duke costing us our 5* in college hoops, a Pistons choke job costing us our 3* in the NBA and 2 no-shows by Stanford and Oregon costing us our 3* teaser. All that brings us down to +1.35 units overall. UNBELIEVABLE! Reminds me of my days with the Sluggers and getting beat by Rhino's. Things like that just shouldn't happen!